Survivor: Nicaragua Finale Preview - running down the odds

We're almost through it, Survivor fans!  One of the least liked seasons in the show's history, Survivor: Nicaragua has its torch snuffed tonight with a two-hour finale at 8:00 EST, followed by the live reunion show (quick program note:  due to an NFL double-hitter on CBS today, there is a possibility that Survivor may be delayed in some parts of the United States).


Let's spend some time considering the possible outcomes of tonight's season finale.  Who will win?  Is everyone really a threat like the episode preview alludes to?  Barring any quitters, here are the possible outcomes:

As you know, we are down to five players left in the game:  Holly, Dan, Sash, Chase, and Fabio.  We also know that we will have a Final Three like we have had in the past several seasons.  This means that a jury of nine will vote for a winner.  Pretend for a minute that the vote happened right now, with five players left. Here is my theory on who would vote for whom. This is my just my opinion of course as no scientific study has been conducted. Here the votes as I see them playing out:

  • Marty - Dan, Fabio, Sash, Holly, Chase
  • Alina - Fabio, Holly, Dan, Sash, Chase
  • Brenda - Fabio, Sash, Chase, Holly, Dan
  • Benry - Fabio, Dan, Holly, Chase, Sash
  • NaOnka - Chase, Sash, Holly, Fabio, Dan
  • Purple Kelly - Chase, Sash, Holly, Fabio, Dan
  • Jane - Fabio, Dan, Holly, Sash, Chase
  • So much more can happen and alliances can and often will turn bitter.  But take the above into account when considering the real possible Final Three combinations.

    First of all, the alliance of Sash/Chase/Holly seemed very strong last episode.  Since Fabio is a bigger threat physically and to win the competition than Dan, Fabio is gone unless he wins immunity.  If he does win the next immunity, I believe Dan would be eliminated.  Either way, there is no scenario where both Dan and Fabio make the Final Three.  So assume the Final Four consists of Holly, Chase, Sash, and either Dan or Fabio. If Dan goes first, Fabio would need to win the second immunity challenge as well, or I believe he'd be gone next.

    So in a nutshell, either Fabio wins two straight immunity challenges to reach the Final Three, or the Final Three will be Holly, Sash, and Chase.  In this scenario, I believe both Fabio and Dan would vote for Holly, and if you use my chart above that means Holly would win 5-2-2.

    But let's say Fabio wins both immunity challenges, and Dan is voted out first.  With immunity, Sash and Chase would likely vote against Holly and Fabio would be stupid to take Holly with him to the end.  So in my opinion, if Fabio does sneak his way into the Final Three, it can only be Fabio, Chase, and Sash.

    In this scenario, Holly may have bitterness about being voted out, but I feel she would cast a winning vote for Chase, while Dan would vote for Fabio.  This would mean that Fabio wins Survivor, with a 6-3-0 vote over Chase.

    The question is, do you agree with my picks?  If you do, then it looks like Fabio wins the game, but only if he wins the next two immunity challenges.  If he doesn't?  Then Holly wins Survivor.

    It all comes down to this... don't miss the Finale tonight!  Check out my column tomorrow for a look back at the season as a whole and what's in store for next season.  According to Jeff Probst, there will be a "big announcement" at the reunion show related to what's going with next season.

    By FilmSurvivor - Tom Santilli

    About the author

    Tom Santilli is a national columnist and movie critic, who also covers Survivor for  His ongoing work can be found at his blog,  He is a member of the Detroit Film Critic Society, and huge Survivor fan.

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    1 Comment
    On: Sunday, December 19, 2010
    Eric - TV Geek Army "Revered Leader" said:

    Great run down Tom, can't wait to get down to the nitty grit with this show and and find out how it plays out !


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